Tuesday, November 21, 2006

A high risk strategy (but a successful one) on Paradise Poker

This blog first appeared on www.pokerverdict.com in April 2006

I was inspired to start playing tournaments by Tony Holden’s classic ‘Big Deal’. Nowadays, the younger players are typically inspired by another classic piece of poker media, namely the film ‘Rounders’ (click here to buy the DVD).

At the start of Rounders (you can see the first eight minutes on www.youtubepoker.com) Mike McDermott, played by Matt Damon, starts the narration by explaining how he has built his bankroll by playing in games he knows he can beat, by taking minimal risk and by 'grinding' out a living. However, in explaining why he is about to risk that whole bankroll by playing in the biggest and most skilful game in town, Mike explains: “If you're too careful, your whole life can become a fuckin’ grind.”

While Mike applies this theory to playing in high limit cash games, I think that some parallel lessons can be learned in the arena of tournament poker.

In general, when it comes to the early stages of a final table I like to play a pretty tight, solid game and pick my spots to move, hoping like Mike that I can grind it out by adding to my stack via low-risk small pots. The added benefit of playing this way is that you create a tight image and when you do enter a pot the other players will give you respect for having a big hand (even if you don’t). In the later stages when we get short-handed I open up my game and hope that the respect earned earlier sticks!

Taking risks

The reason I open up is that unless the deck runs over you, however good you may be at grinding out small pots, the time comes (like for Mike) when you must start taking risks. Unlike Mike this is not for the adrenaline rush or the need to feel really alive, it is because to be a regular tournament winner you must ‘have gamble’.

A good example of a risky but ultimately profitable play came during the final table of my recent MTT victory on Paradise. With 740 people playing this $200 competition, first prize was a very handy $34,000 and that was always my target. But having started the final table with a very commanding chip lead, by the time we got down to five-handed I now tied in chips with two other strong players and I had the sensation that tournament victory may be slipping away when the following hand came up:

Blinds were 8,000-16,000 with a running ante of 800 and I had 446,000 chips. I was dealt 4-4 on the button and made it 45,000 to go. A strong player with 442,000 in chips made it 110,000 to go from the small blind. I decided to call the bet.

The flop came down 6-J-T. My opponent led out for 90,000 and I minimum raised up to 180,000. My opponent called. The turn card came a 3, my opponent checked and I pushed all in for my remaining 147,000. My opponent passed and I took down a huge pot without showing my cards. My opponent’s stack was severely dented and I had regained a big chip lead at a critical stage.

The Verdict

This was a very uncharacteristic and risky play. Ordinarily when re-raised pre flop I would either pass the pocket fours or push all-in. But based on previous plays I thought my opponent had a strong but not monster holding – strong enough to call an all-in but not so strong that I couldn’t outplay him after the flop – probably a big Ace or a middle pair. So I called to give myself a chance to hit a set and/or get more information after the flop.

The flop was not a great one - no four and three overcards. There was every chance my opponent could be holding a 10 or a Jack, but on the positive side no Ace had come down. When my opponent bet out 90,000 into the 225,000 chip pot I sensed weakness. Based on previous plays, I was pretty sure that if he held A-J or K-J he would have pushed all-in. I was equally confident that if he flopped a monster (like trip 10s) he would have trap-checked. Obviously I still had enough chips to pass but I sensed this was a big opportunity. Rather than pushing all in I decided on a minimum raise. My reasoning was that if he went ahead and reraised all-in I could pass (crippled but not out) and also that a minimum reraise would scream of strength on my part.

Obviously I was hoping he would pass but when he just flat-called, I was sure he did not have a Jack or a 10. With something like A-10, my minimum raise would have forced him to either pass or to commit to the hand there and then by reraising all-in. Thus I was very confident that he was either holding A-K or A-Q and he felt obliged to call the small raise to try and hit his straight or one of his overcards. So when the turn came blank I followed up by pushing all-in and he duly obliged by passing.

I was very pleased with this play. It gave me the chips and the momentum I needed to go on and win the tournament. It was risky or course, but you have to take risks to win poker tournaments and if you can combine a willingness to gamble with creativity and strong player/hand analysis, you will always have a chance.

Until next time…

All the best,

David aka The Judge

24 April 2006

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David Gross is the co-founder of Easyodds and the Managing Director of Poker Verdict. He is also a frequent online poker tournament player playing as thekid08.

Poker Verdict is a free service catering for the online poker community. It offers a unique and powerful tournament search tool as well as news and views from online poker experts.

Easyodds is a free service that compares odds from over 20 big name online betting companies (ladbrokes, betfair etc) to allow users to find the best price for any bet.

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